Climate Adaptation and Resilience: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Introduction Chapter on Climate Adaptation

The aim of this book is to shed light on some realities of climate adaptation, resilience and the related challenges and needs in vulnerable and exposed territories. The book proposes a multi-disciplinary and multi-scale analysis of climate adaptation focusing civil society, governance systems and on dialogue and cooperation. It also identifies and analyzes a few solutions, policies and good practices such as early warning systems, nature-based solutions, and adaptive spatial planning. The book also focuses on conflict-solving approaches, and the importance of dialogue and accountability in creating meaningful climate attenuation solutions.

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‘Human induced climate change including more frequent and intense weather events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people beyond natural climate variability’ (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change 2022)

‘Approximately 3.3 to 3.6. billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change (…) Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflicts and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (eg. small holder farmers)...’ (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change 2022)

Climate change is one of the major systemic threats of our time. 2021 and 2022 have been marked by extreme climate events: unprecedented heat waves in Europe, in the Mediterranean, in North America, and in South Asia, droughts, desertification, and forest fires, unprecedented floods in Northwest Europe, and in Mozambique; tropical storms like Hurricane Yaas in Bangladesh¹ and storm Ana in Madagascar², as well as, consecutive cyclones Batsirai and Emnati of 2022, make up just a handful of the many natural disasters around the ←11 | 12→world. Impacts are countless. An estimated 10 million people are suffering from famine in the horn of Africa in June 2022.

Summer of 2021 was the hottest summer on record over countries like the United States and Tunisia with temperatures reaching over 50°C in some areas. Summer of 2022 reached records of temperatures in Western Europe due to a ‘double Jetstream effect’ (Rousi et al. 2022), including in France, in Portugal, in Spain and in the UK. These heat waves caused the ‘invisible and silent’ death of several thousands of people in each of these countries, and especially in cities more severely hit by the heat island effect. There was a myriad of unprecedented wildfires. The Dixie fire in California in the summer of 2021 resulted in the loss of 390,000 hectares of land and wildlife and has been recorded as the largest single fire on record in the state. Across the summers of 2021 and 2022, major wildfires occurred across many parts of the Mediterranean region with Algeria, Southern Turkey, Greece, Southern France, Spain and Portugal especially affected, accelerating a vicious circle of climate change with the destruction of important carbon sinks³. In the Gironde region in France, around 20 000 ha (200km²) have been burnt in the fires of July 2022, which is equivalent to twice the surface of the city of Paris. Another major consequence of climate change are floods. On the 14th and 15th of July 2021, Western Germany and Eastern Belgium received 100–150 mm of rainfall over a wide area on already saturated ground, causing flooding, landslides, and more than 200 deaths and many people homeless. At the same time, in the Henan province in China, flash floods were linked to more than 302 deaths, with reported economic losses equivalent to 17.7 billion US dollars (UNFCCC 2021). No area in the world seems spared by climate disasters. An unprecedented heat wave also hit India and Pakistan in April 2022, Niger is severely affected by water scarcity, a drought related disastrous famine is present in the horn of Africa, and floods in the North East of Bangladesh in June 2022 stranded 4 million of people in need of shelter, food, and clean water⁴.

Most of the human losses linked to climate change were overlooked, as they did not account for famines, malnutrition and other health-related deaths. Indeed, the latest IPCC report (2022) is raising the alarm on the impacts of climate change on the most vulnerable areas: ‘Increasing weather and climate events have exposed millions of people to acute food ←12 | 13→insecurity and reduced water security with the largest impacts observed in many locations, and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, small islands, and the Arctic (…) Jointly, sudden losses of food production and access to food compounded by decreased diet diversity have increased malnutrition in many communities’ (IPCC, 2022:11). The famine in the South of Madagascar in 2021 and 2022, which was directly related to the crop failures caused by reduced rainfall, is another example of the increased death toll that is not always attributed to climate change, but where climate change is an important factor together with poverty and lack of infrastructure. The horn of Africa is also deeply hit by famine and malnutrition, caused by violent conflicts and by severe increasing droughts. Currently the life of 10 million people is threatened by famine and malnutrition in this region of the world.

Globally, approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change (IPCC, 2022: 13). No region is spared by the increase in climate-related disasters, while the link between climate change and the direct impacts is not always possible to demonstrate directly when the climate-related event is occurring. Preliminary ‘rapid attribution’ studies⁵ have been carried out for the heatwave in northwest America in June and July and found out that the heatwave is ‘still rare or very rare in today’s climate but would have been virtually impossible without climate change.’ Global sea level changes primarily result from ocean warming via thermal expansion of sea water and land ice melt, for example, from glaciers, which is creating concern of sea level rise, floods, soil erosion, and further climate change and climate related events as oceans are accumulating heat and are the most important carbon sinks for GHG emissions⁶. As a reminder, oceans account for 90 % of the total accumulated heat that has been gained by the planet due to climate change. Human vulnerability to climate-related disasters is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges, and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflicts, and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods such as farmers with small plots of land (IPCC 2022). Cities paid a heavy toll for this situation, as they accommodate populations with a high density including vulnerable groups, but also because cities are exposed directly to hazards: These include heat waves with impacts on vulnerable populations such as aging ←13 | 14→populations and children and flood exposure in the vicinity of riverbeds and coastal exposed areas. The 2022 IPCC report also explicitly mentions that vulnerability increases in informal settlements.

Southeast Asia and Africa are highly vulnerable to climate disaster risks. Africa is highly impacted by droughts, desertification, and increases in temperatures, which affect water resources, ecosystems, rain-dependent agriculture, and communities (Gaborit, 2021). South Asia (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Southern India) and Southeast Asia are directly exposed to floods and to sea level rise (Map 1), as well as to heat waves and increasing temperatures. 8 of the 10 countries in the world with the largest number of people living in low altitude areas are in Asia. This includes China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, and the Philippines (Climate Central 2019). Other countries like the Maldives are equally dangerously affected. Here again, civil society organizations and governance systems such as local governments and cities are at the forefront of the climate battle. Recent studies show that a city like Manila could be entirely underwater by 2050, while cities like Jakarta are ←14 | 15→threatened by subsidence or ‘sinking’ below the sea level. The city lost 3–10 cm already in some areas already due to groundwater extraction among others, leading to increased floods. As we will detail later in this book, this situation of vulnerability in large, but also in medium-sized cities, can also have cascading or compound effects on water access and landslides.

The book is unique in that it unites different perspectives and examples from different countries and regions to develop a thorough and ←15 | 16→nuanced perspective on potential climate change solutions and the barriers to behavioral change at all levels of climate-related decision making.

Part I The Broader Picture of Climate Adaptation

1. Why This Book? Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities

The effects of climate change are already known and experienced in different areas of the world, with variable intensity, but it is impossible ←16 | 17→to deny that they are already occurring. Forecasts and projections are based on different scientific scenarios. The human loss calculations related to climate change appear far below the exact fatalities where climate change acted as amplifier for other causes of loss of human life when considering droughts, famines, and other related problems (e.g. in Southern Madagascar in 2021 and in the horn of Africa as well as in Niger in 2022). It is foreseeable that climate extremities and disasters such as typhoons, floods, sea level rises, and extended dry spells become more frequent. The disruptions in the ecosystems and water resources jeopardize the wellbeing of populations and can lead to displacements, unrest, and potential conflicts (Glasser 2020, IPCC 2021). In this context, islands and coastal areas like the Indonesian archipelago, Bangladesh, the Maldives and other regions such South East Asia and Africa are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate disasters (Nicholls et al. 2007). According to the recent IPCC report, half of the world’s population is now living in areas that are vulnerable to climate disasters (2022), and solutions are urgently needed to cope with this situation (and to reverse the trend when possible).

Tab. 1: Table on the impacts of Climate Change. Source Author.

Sector