Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan
Summary
Excerpt
Table Of Contents
- Cover
- Title
- Copyright
- About the author
- About the book
- This eBook can be cited
- Table of Contents
- List of Maps and Tables
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Abbreviations
- Introduction
- Conflict and Security
- Policy and Strategy
- Possibility-Probability (P2) Model
- Research Questions
- Central Argument
- Conclusion
- Chapter One: India-Pakistan Relations: A History of Wars and Conflicts
- Introduction
- Historical Background
- The Karachi Agreement (1949)
- Indus Water Treaty (1960)
- The Rann of Kutch Conflict (1965)
- First General War between India and Pakistan (1965)
- Operation Gibraltar
- Operation Grand Slam
- The 17-Days War (September 1965)
- The Tashkent Declaration (1966)
- Second General War between India and Pakistan (1971)
- The Simla Agreement (1972)
- Conclusion
- Chapter Two: The Doables: Sir Creek and Siachen Disputes
- Introduction
- Sir Creek Dispute
- Siachen Dispute
- Conclusion
- Chapter Three: India-Pakistan Relations: Instability, Crises, and Rapprochement (1983–98)
- Introduction
- Exercise Brasstacks (1987)
- The Kashmir Crisis (1990s)
- Conclusion
- Chapter Four: Post Nuclear Environment: The Kargil Conflict (1999)
- Introduction
- The Military Engagement on Kargil Heights
- Analysis on P-2 Model
- Conclusion
- Chapter Five: Post 9/11 Environment: Crises and Rapprochement
- Introduction
- Twin Peak Crises (2001–02)
- Air of Change: Need or Compulsion
- CBMs: Past and Present
- Mumbai Attacks (2008)
- Conclusion
- Chapter Six: Role of Nuclear Deterrence in Conflicts and Crises
- Introduction
- Nuclear Deterrence: Guarantor of Peace in South Asia?
- Role of the US in Indo-Pak Conflicts & Crises
- Conclusion
- Chapter Seven: Decolonization of the Kashmir Issue: Post Pulwama Environment
- Introduction
- Decolonization: How?
- India on Jammu and Kashmir: From Strategic Pendency to Strategic Urgency
- Proposed Preparations for Pakistan
- Conclusion
- Chapter Eight: Application of ‘Possibility-Probability’ (P2) Model
- Introduction
- Mutually Agreeable Voluntary Actions (MAVA)
- India-Pakistan Relations: Possible Scenarios with varying probabilities
- Possibility-Probability (P2) Model for Decision-Making
- Conclusion
- Chapter Nine: Fear Wars and Near Peace: The Way Forward
- Introduction
- The Way Forward
- Conclusion
- Conclusion
- Appendix ‘A’ Lahore Declaration: 1999
- Appendix ‘B’ Simla Agreement: 1972
- Bibliography
Maps and Tables
Table 4.1 The Kargil Conflict on P2 Model
Table 8.1 The Kargil Conflict 1999
Table 8.2 The Siachen Conflict: 1984- to-date
Table 8.3 Operations Gibraltar April 1965
Table 8.4 India-Pakistan Relations: Possible Scenarios by 2020–25
Chart 8.5 Possibility-Probability (P2) Model for Decision-Making
Preface
India-Pakistan relationship is complex and choreographed with wars, protracted conflicts, and active disputes. Though the presence of nuclear weapons has decreased the probability of an all-out conventional war, the frequency of minor conflicts and crises have increased manifold. India considers nuclear weapons as deterrent against nuclear strikes, whereas Pakistan assumes that these would deter a nuclear as well as a conventional war. The central argument of this research is that another military engagement between India and Pakistan, similar to February 2019, exists with varying degrees of probability, thus challenging the efficacy of nuclear deterrence. Until the probabilities of military engagements are minimized, the possibilities of peace and stability in the region would remain elusive. Therefore, the situation asks for scholarly contribution in developing a new paradigm wherein the two nuclear neighbors are made to recognize the need to resolve their disputes instead of just managing them, to avoid recurrence of violent conflicts that can lead to a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
Keywords: India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Realism, Nuclear Deterrence, War, Conflict, Crisis, Security, Stability, Decision-making, Possibility-Probability (P2), Conflict Management, Conflict Resolution, Strategic Pendency
Acknowledgments
First and foremost, I bow my head before Allah Almighty for His Countless Blessings upon me during the entire period of my research.
I offer my sincerest gratitude to Dr. Rizwana Abbasi for her guidance and support throughout this period. I am indebted to all my teachers particularly Dr Zafar Cheema, Dr Zulfqar Khan, Dr Zafar Jaspal, Dr Tughral Yamin, Dr Naeem Salik and academics, and practitioners from military, and civilian bureaucracy, whose talks, lectures, and discussions have benefitted me immensely in shaping my research on this extremely important subject. An effort has been made to acknowledge and refer their work appropriately; however, if any idea or work is not referred properly, I would seek guidance to make suitable correction.
I am grateful to Peter Lang for helping me complete this project so that it can generate discussions, deliberations, and awareness on the seriousness of the situation in South Asia. My thanks are also due to my late mother for her endless prayers and for the continued support of my wife Khajista, and children Ammad and Unum.
Abbreviations
Details
- Pages
- XXIV, 202
- Publication Year
- 2020
- ISBN (PDF)
- 9781433172724
- ISBN (ePUB)
- 9781433172731
- ISBN (MOBI)
- 9781433180224
- ISBN (Hardcover)
- 9781433172717
- DOI
- 10.3726/b17452
- Language
- English
- Publication date
- 2021 (January)
- Published
- New York, Bern, Berlin, Bruxelles, Oxford, Wien, 2020. XXIV, 202 pp., 1 b/w ill., 2 color ill., 5 tables.
